Multiple sources have confirmed that three of the four Republican county chairmen are supporting Mensch:  Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties have agreed to join forces in their support for Mensch.

The Pennsylvania GOP bylaws give each of the four counties one conferee at the convention, and an additional conferee for every 1000 votes John McCain received in the 2008 election in the portion of the county that includes the 24^th Senate District..  The total conferees from each county breaks down as follows: Montgomery County - 22 conferees; Bucks County - 12 conferees; Lehigh County – 14 conferees and Northampton county -14 Conferees.

With Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton joining together, the three counties have a combined 40 votes to Montgomery County’s 22 votes. Montco GOP Chairman Bob Kerns is said to be privately backing County Commissioner Bruce Castor.

“Bob Mensch is a solid person who brings real world experience to Harrisburg,” said one insider. “I don’t think voters want someone who has been in government most of their lives,” a clear reference to Castor.

Mensch worked for AT&T for 28 years. In 1997 he left AT&T for ARBROS Communications as Sales Director and General Manager.   He also served as a Marlborough Township Supervisor before his election to the state House in 2006. He was re-elected in 2008 with more than 63 percent of the vote.

While several GOP leaders privately conceded that Castor has high name recognition in Montgomery County, his name identification was no greater than Mensch in the Lehigh Valley. “Name ID is the easiest thing to buy in a campaign,” said one operative.

“The three chairmen agreed that Mensch was the best candidate and that Castor had just too much baggage. His admission at the trial of Vince Fumo that he of used his county office to campaign for District Attorney and cashing in his vacation time through a loophole to grab some $70,000 for a single day’s work we believe are difficult issues for Castor to overcome. Voters are just sick of that kind of stuff from career politicians,” concluded a GOP leader.

Inquirer Staff Writer

He is the man who believes he could be governor, but years of political infighting have stranded him in Norristown, cowboy boots on his desk, surrounded by souvenir firearms and other relics of past success.

Bruce L. Castor Jr., the golden-boy prosecutor who became a feckless Montgomery County commissioner, is restive again. Eighteen months after being cut out of power by his fellow commissioners, he is eyeing a state Senate seat as an escape.

“We have embraced everything that I campaigned against, and we have failed to implement anything that I campaigned for,” he said ruefully.

“I thought it would be totally opposite.”

He is 47, and a once-turbocharged political career has stalled. He remains as sharp and telegenic as when he made his name as a big-trial, perpetually televised prosecutor more than a decade ago. Though the cameras come around less, he retains a high public profile from his days as the charismatic, tough-talking lawman of the suburbs.

“At some point in time, he will hold statewide elected office,” said Tim Woodward, a Norristown defense lawyer and colleague. “The only surprise is that it hasn’t happened.”

For now, for all his considerable assets, Castor is adrift in the political tides.

A state representative is in position to outflank Castor for a Republican nomination to the Senate seat, insiders say. That Castor is even in this battle is surprising, given his ambitions.

“I am not a legislator. I am not a consensus-builder. I am a leader,” he said seven years ago. But he’s now gamely talking up his quest to join a crowd of equals in the Senate.

“I guess I’ve mellowed some,” he shrugged.

His once-boundless future lies in the hands of a GOP hierarchy he has previously offended. Castor may have more at stake than just a state Senate nod.

“I don’t know if he can suffer a defeat of that nature and bounce back politically,” said John Kennedy, political science professor at West Chester University.

A blue-blood ascent

Bruce Lee Castor Jr.’s smooth ride up began with his blue bloodlines.

In the family tree are early-20th-century Philadelphia Mayor Thomas B. Smith and Breyer’s Ice Cream president Clyde H. Shaffer. Castor Avenue took its name from where it once led: the Frankford family farm Castor’s Swiss ancestors founded after arriving in 1732.

After law school at Washington & Lee University in Virginia – where a hobby was riding horses – Castor bonded with Mike Marino, the three-term Montgomery County district attorney.

“He’s very, very quick,” Marino said of his former protege. “He can analyze something in 30 minutes that would take another guy two days. I mean, that’s how good he is.” Castor still occasionally rides horses at Marino’s farm.

Showing up early and winning high-profile murder cases got the young lawyer noticed. At 32, he became Marino’s top assistant. At 33, his name was already in circulation for the top job.

By the time Castor succeeded Marino in 2000, he was already talking higher office – attorney general, perhaps governor, people who knew him then say.

Montgomery County was the state’s largest under GOP control. And he was regularly on television in Pennsylvania’s largest media market, delivering flamboyant speeches as he sent criminals to jail.

“As a D.A., you’re kind of on God’s side,” said Marcel Groen, the Democratic Party chair for Montgomery County. “It’s pretty hard to mess that up, and he was pretty popular.”

So, the same week in 2003 that he was reelected county district attorney, Castor announced he’d run for attorney general.

A career debacle

The failed campaign never got past the primary level. Though it broke his name statewide, it haunts his career.

Christian Marrone, now the estranged son-in-law of convicted former State Sen. Vincent J. Fumo, worked on fund-raising and other politicking needs for Castor, who coordinated the work by e-mail and meetings in the District Attorney’s Office. At Fumo’s trial, Castor testified he “probably shouldn’t have” used county resources, and County Commissioner Joseph M. Hoeffel III, a Democrat, lambasted Castor for “political abuses” of his office.

“It was a mistake to let [Marrone] become involved” in the campaign, Castor said.

During that campaign, Castor blamed Republican power-broker Bob Asher for having “hijacked” key endorsements for his primary opponent, Tom Corbett. The two had history: law-and-order Castor had helped block Asher, convicted of a corruption felony from 1986, from appointment to the SEPTA board in 2001. It grew into political war when Castor questioned Asher’s role in Corbett’s campaign.

Now Castor talks of rapprochement.

“There aren’t so many people that have my profile that you can throw away any,” Castor said. “Maybe this Senate seat will be an opportunity to try to repair that rift.”

Asher has little, if any, interest.

“He’s not even on the face of the Earth,” Asher said. “He’s not even part of the Republican plan for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”

Limited effectiveness

Castor’s broad appeal as a two-term district attorney got him the most votes of any commissioner candidate in 2007. He said he ran to help retain the GOP’s hold on county government, but then the second- and third-place finishers, Hoeffel and Republican James R. Matthews, united against him, finding party differences less problematic than Castor.

He has fumed at length during county commissioner meetings. Hoeffel and Matthews frequently pass measures by a 2-1 vote, and Castor has unsuccessfully fought policies on ethics and economic development, several hiring decisions, and the county’s 2009 budget.

“There’s no partisan way to take out the trash,” said Matthews, “and yet we’ve had all these negative votes and divisiveness.”

Observers see little proof of effectiveness.

“He’s earning a reputation that he can be difficult to deal with in a legislative setting,” Kennedy said. “His career setbacks have not been at the hands of the Democrats. They have been at the hands of people in his own party. That may tell you something.”

Castor’s hope of escaping to the state Senate lies, for now, entirely in the hands of Republican leaders.

GOP delegates from Montgomery, Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton Counties will soon choose their preferred candidate for a special election this fall.

Castor and State Rep. Bob Mensch (R., Montgomery), who has few enemies, are said to be leading the field.

Mensch has declined to clear the path.

“He’s been on television all those years, but it’s about who understands the people,” Mensch said.

If Castor is beaten, he’s considering still running for the Senate seat in the 2010 primary.

It is a potential fallback plan to escape a commissioner’s office.

The certificate of election as a county commissioner hangs in the restroom, and Matthews has been Photoshopped out of a group portrait of the county’s 2007 GOP team.

The office is otherwise decorated in Early Arsenal: his great-grandfather Smith’s mayoral rifle, a gift rifle and saber from his time as a prosecutor, and a replica of the pistol used in a Norristown State Hospital shooting.

Castor toyed with a dagger – a relic from a distant stabbing, sometime in 1986 in Pottstown – as he considered where endless public appearances and political warfare had gotten him.

“I can sometimes get somebody to fix a pothole,” he said.

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: WILSON RESEARCH STRATEGIES

SUBJECT: PA STATE SENATE 24 SPECIAL ELECTION KEY FINDINGS MEMO

DATE: JUNE 18, 2009

This memo summarizes key findings from a poll of 300 PA Senate District 24 likely voters conducted June 15-16, 2009.

Key Findings

Images and Initial Ballot

All three of the possible Republican nominees test fairly similarly. While Bruce Castor starts with slightly more name ID, Bob Mensch and Jay Moyer are not far behind. This is currently due to geographic areas, with Bob Mensch and Jay Moyer not as well known outside of Montgomery County.

It is surprising given Bruce Castor’s elective positions in Montgomery County over the years that his overall name ID is not stronger and that he starts with 18% unfavorables.

Of note, Bruce Castors highest unfavorables are with women, especially women 65+.
Jay Moyer’s numbers are not bad considering a full scale campaign of negative attacks in 2008 to oust him of his state house seat.

Bob Mensch starts at about the same place as Jay Moyer as far as name ID in the Special Election.

The initial ballot shows all three possible Republican nominees in equal position. Bruce Castor (16% definite, 16% probable 8% lean), Jay Moyer (14% definite, 15% probable and 6% lean), Bob Mensch (12% definite. 15% probable and 5% lean).

All of the numbers show all of the candidates with little name ID outside of Montgomery County, therefore the above initial ballot should be of no surprise, with the exception that one would have thought, as said above, that Bruce Castor would likely lead by much more considering his elective positions held in Montgomery County over the years.

Informed Ballot

After voters are given more information about the candidates, support for Bruce Castor plummets 10%. Voters are particularly angered when they learn of Bruce Castor’s exploiting of a loophole in a county rule which allowed him to cash in on unused vacation and sick time. In total, 63% of the voters are less likely to vote for Bruce Castor after being made aware of this message. The message is even stronger outside of Montgomery County. Bucks County (64% less likely), Lehigh County (74%) and Northampton County (63%).

Also of note, this message is most effective among self described Moderates and Liberal voters, and among GOP women, Dem women and Independent men.

Conclusions

Given the messages tested on all of the candidates Bruce Castor will have the most difficult time winning PA SD 24. Once voters become aware of his exploitation of a county rule loophole allowing him to cash in on unused sick and vacation time, all his soft support will vanish.

The messages tested against Jay Moyer and Bob Mensch have no effect on their ballot position.

The best candidates for the Special Election in PA Senate District 24 are Jay Moyer and Bob Mensch.

Methodology: Wilson Research Strategies conducted a research study of likely voters in Pennsylvania State Senate District 24. Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview June 15-16, 2009. The study has a sample size of n=300 likely special election voters. The margin of error is equal to ±5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases for the special election voters. The sample was stratified to represent the special election electorate in PA SD 24 based on race, age, gender, and geographic distribution.

About Wilson Research Strategies: Since 1998, WRS has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Mayor and City Council to Governor and U.S. Senate in 47 states and several foreign countries. In 2007-2008 alone, WRS conducted polling in 252 races for campaigns, caucuses and independent expenditure efforts. In addition to our political and policy research, WRS provides donor research to Christian and other not-for-profits and alumni research to colleges and universities. More than 200 Christian and other not-for-profit organizations around the country and dozens of large and small colleges and universities have relied on WRS’s data and analysis. WRS’s corporate research arm has provided market research to more than 100 of the Fortune 500 and to hundreds of small and medium businesses nationwide.

It is hardly a secret that Castor has both admirers and detractors in the Montgomery County GOP.  The issues mentioned, though, have little to do with internecine warfare in what was once the state’s premier Republican machine and more to do with issues that might have a special resonance at a time when the public seems increasingly convinced that state government and the political class that dominates it are simply broken.

That perception, of course, is certain to grow more pronounced as the debacle of the state budget unfolds over the course of the summer.

Of special concern is Castor’s well-publicized appearance at the county courthouse on New Years Day in 2008, his last day as district attorney.  The gesture of signing in at the guard’s desk netted him vacation and sick pay well into five figures.  While perfectly legal, the exercise might not sit well with an electorate weary of self-dealing politicians.

Campaign veterans also recall with concern the kid-gloves treatment accorded by Castor to GOP powerhouse Drew Lewis after a DUI arrest.  This issue–and Lewis’s subsequent half-million dollar contribution to Castor’s campaign for attorney general–were used to devastating effect by Castor’s opponent in that 2004 race, Tom Corbett.

One also hears rumblings from some suburban Republicans that Castor’s apparent offer to testify on behalf of former Senator Vince Fumo during Fumo’s trial strikes them as–at best–peculiar.

We will take a closer look at each of these issues and their impact on the race in the days ahead–and as always, we welcome your comments.

Mensch blasts Montgomery County GOP Chairman Bob Kerns, alleges he favors Bruce Castor to replace Wonderling. How mad is state Rep. Bob Mensch about Montgomery County Republican Committee Chairman Bob Kern’s quiet support for Montgomery County Commissioner? Well, judge yourself from the e-mail Kerns sent to Kerns and others Sunday night just before 11:30 p.m. Kerns, Castor and former Rep. Jay Moyer, R-Montgomery, are three of a potentially large field of candidates to replace Sen. Rob Wonderling, R-Montgomery, in a special election to be held this fall. Wonderling is resigning in August to become head of the Philadelphia Regional Chamber of Commerce. The GOP nominee to replace him will be chosen by a conference of Montgomery, Lehigh, Northampton and Bucks county GOP committeepeople. As GOP chairman of the largest county in the district, Kerns will pick about 35 percent of the conferees. Here is the text of Mensch’s email: “Bob, “I was honored and flattered when you called me on June 1st to ask me to run for the 24thSenatorial District as your, County Chairman’s, candidate. However, since then I’ve been disappointed that you have decided instead to campaign full time for Bruce Castor, so I guess your commitment to me on June 1st wasn’t really worth very much. “I’m not going to recount all the incidents and occurrences in the past two weeks, but there is one large issue which screams foul, and that is the total lack of integrity to send me a copy of the poll that you insist on running to favor Castor. On several occasions, and notably, in front of others on June 5th at Republican State Committee you promised me a copy, but I’ve not yet received one. I understand that the other County Chairmen (Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton) have received theirs as well as Jay Moyer. I’ve emailed you several times asking for a copy, but to no avail. Then, earlier this evening I received a voice mail from someone by the name Ken[t] Gates, withthe message that I need to respond by tomorrow morning with any comments or changes on the poll. Funny thing though, he called from a private number and didn’t leave an email or a phone number for me to respond. He said he sent a copy to me via email, but I have not received one in either of my emails, and he will be unable to present a verifiable receipt that he did. At this point, this just seems to be one more purposeful deceit in this process. I have no doubt, despite your first commitment to me, you will continue to try to create every advantage for Castor in this polling process. Regardless, I will continue to pursue the nomination, even though I fully realize you are stacking the deck for Castor in Montgomery County. You know if Bruce is so serious about public service in the State legislature, why don’t you first encourage him to run for the House seat in the 70th, which was lost by the Republicans in the last election. You have my cell and you have my email. I expect to hear from you before this poll “goes to press”. My previous two emails to you have not been responded to, but I expect that you will respond to this message.”

Kerns is about to face his biggest challenge since assuming the leadership of the county party in May 2008. He will have to back a candidate for the soon-to-be-vacated state Senate seat in the 24th District, which covers portions of Montgomery, Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton counties.

The Senate seat will become available after Aug. 1 when Sen. Rob Wonderling is planning to step down to take over as president and CEO of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.

Wonderling, serving his second term in the state Senate, is seen as a rising star in the Republican party with ambition that could take him to the governor’s mansion one day.

A special election will be held later this year to fill Wonderling’s seat until next year’s regularly scheduled legislative elections. The winner of the special election will have the advantage of being the incumbent in 2010 and should win a full four-year term in the state Senate.

The GOP needs to hold on to Wonderling’s seat, but it appears too many well-known Republicans are interested in the job. That’s where the dilemma comes in for Kerns, who will have to rally the party around a single candidate.

Within 24 hours of Wonderling’s announcement that he is leaving the Senate, two potential candidates emerged. State Rep. Bob Mensch, R-147, and Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce L. Castor Jr. each stated publicly they would like to replace Wonderling.

Both already have high-profile elected positions, but the opportunity to serve in the state Senate is too good for either official to pass up.

Later in the week, another potential GOP candidate’s name surfaced, but former state Rep. Jay Moyer is unlikely to attract much support from voters or party officials. Moyer barely won a seat in the state House in 2006 but lost his re-election bid in 2008. Not exactly the strongest candidate for a state Senate run.

On the other hand, either Mensch or Castor would have the edge in keeping Wonderling’s seat in Republican hands.

There’s no downside for either man making a run for the Senate because both have jobs to fall back on. Castor still has two years left in his four-year term as one of three elected commissioners running one of the largest county governments in the state. Mensch won reelection last November to a second two-year term in the state House.

Neither has to quit their day job to make a run for Wonderling’s seat. The loser simply returns to his current position. The winner gets to move to a higher-profile office.

Castor could gain the most because he is currently in political purgatory as the odd man out in a power-sharing agreement between renegade Republican Commissioner Jim Matthews and Democratic Commissioner Joe Hoeffel. Although Castor was the top vote-getter in the 2007 election (and basically got Matthews reelected on his coattails), Matthews surrendered control of county government to Hoeffel rather than allow Castor to take the lead.  Read more at Castor-Mensch contest will test party unity…

Add the name of another Montgomery County Republican to the list of those interested in filling the state Senate vacancy when GOP incumbent Robert C. Wonderling steps down from his 24th District seat on July 31.

Lower Salford resident Jay R. Moyer, a former state representative and a former county treasurer, has contacted county GOP chairman Robert J. Kerns and asked that he be considered for the position.

Moyer, who was defeated last year in his bid to win a second two-year term in the state House, Friday could not be reached for comment.

State Rep. Robert Mensch, R-147, already has announced that he wants to replace Wonderling, who on Monday said that he will resign to take over as president and chief executive officer of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce on Aug. 1.

Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce L. Castor Jr., the former district attorney whose name is most frequently mentioned to replace Wonderling, earlier this week said he is giving it “serious consideration.”

“We are fortunate to have three strong candidates who bring a lot to the table for the citizens of the 24th District,” said Kerns.

Wonderling’s term does not expire until the end of next year.

The decision on whether to hold a special election this year or keep the seat vacant and let it be filled in next year’s elections will be up to state Senate Pro Tempore Joseph B. Scarnati, who is serving as lieutenant governor in the wake of Catherine Baker Knoll’s death.

Scarnati has not announced his decision.

If a special election is held, both the Republicans and Democrats would select a candidate to run in that election.

Kerns said that the state GOP would hold a nominating convention to select its candidate.

Each of the four counties in the 24th District would send a certain number of conferees, all registered Republicans living in that district, to vote at that convention. The number of conferees each county would have is determined by the number of votes that GOP presidential nominee received in last year’s election, according to Kerns.

Kerns estimated that Montgomery County would have about 22 votes at the convention, while Bucks County would have 12 and both Lehigh and Northampton counties each would have 14.

Most of the attention on the Democratic side has focused on state Rep. Robert Freeman, although Montgomery County Deputy Chief Operating Officer James W. Maza of Marlborough has not yet officially ruled out a bid for the office for which he unsuccessfully ran in 2002. Read more at

Most of the attention on the Democratic side has focused on state Rep. Robert Freeman, although Montgomery County Deputy Chief Operating Officer James W. Maza of Marlborough has not yet officially ruled out a bid for the office for which he unsuccessfully ran in 2002. Read more at  Former State Rep Jay Moyer joins hunt for Wonderling seat…

NORRISTOWN — A day after state Sen. Rob Wonderling announced he is stepping down to take a new job, the jockeying has begun to replace him.

Republican Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce L. Castor Jr. said Tuesday he is strongly considering a bid for the 24th District seat Wonderling will vacate in August to head the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce.  Castor, Mensch eye Wonderling state Senate seat

Given Pennsylvania’s current woes–a budget shortfall of well over three billion dollars, some of the highest business taxes in the nation, a property tax system widely agreed to have become unworkable, and the steady loss of jobs and families from our Commonwealth–the stakes are high.  The voters deserve better than to simply have either political party blithely hand the nomination to whichever local official first strikes party leaders as either deserving or electable.

As one would expect of a seat held by Republicans for the last century, much of the early speculation about Wonderling’s successor has centered on prospective Republican candidates, and it is to them that we are likely to first turn our attention in the days and weeks ahead.  However, you can be sure that our goal of informing the electorate about the candidates will lead us to report as fully and fairly as possible on those from both parties.